- ! Start probabilities are over-generous for 4 team(s) (worst: Argentina implies 17.0 starters vs 11). Fringe starters are less nailed than shown — confirm with announced XIs.
- ! Saved squad is for round 7, projections are round 8 — sync your team after making transfers.
Scouting Bonus Console
Ranks low-owned World Cup players by their real routes to the Scouting Bonus — projections from market odds and real player stats, with a live squad optimiser, transfer planner and backtesting.
Highest final expected points among sub-5% players (base points + expected Scouting Bonus − risk). The squad builder assembles these into a valid, optimised 15-man squad.
- DEF4.0%Marcos LlorenteSpain v Argentina · Clean sheet+0.904.8
- MID1.1%Morgan RogersEngland @ France · Assists / set pieces+0.333.1
- MID1.0%Aurélien TchouaméniFrance v England · Tackles+0.504.0
- MID2.2%Fabián RuizSpain v Argentina · Goal threat+0.383.7
- MID2.6%Marcus RashfordEngland @ France · Goal threat+0.433.8
- MID1.7%Adrien RabiotFrance v England · Assists / set pieces+0.323.1
- MID2.4%Elliot AndersonEngland @ France · Tackles+0.253.0
- MID0.2%Giovani Lo CelsoArgentina @ Spain · Goal threat+0.372.8
model/config/scoring_rules.yaml · v1
- Appearance 60+
- +2
- Assist
- +3
- DEF/GK clean sheet
- +5
- MID goal
- +6
- FWD goal
- +5
- Scouting Bonus
- +2 · <5% · >4pts
Highly owned (≥7%) players the model rates as unlikely starters (under 55% start) — backup keepers, super-subs, rotation risks. Fade the field here: a trap the crowd captains is as valuable to avoid as a differential is to find.
Sub-5% players most likely to post a big score — the upside that can justify a points hit. Sorted by ceiling × haul probability.
Odds blended with each side's actual tournament output. A favourite priced high but producing little is where knockout upsets live — fade heavy stacks there, and trim clean-sheet/captain confidence in likely extra-time games.
Sustainable = returns keep coming AND the underlying rates support them. One-off = a spike the player's routes can't explain — trap risk if chased.
| Strategy | Shape | Raw XI pts | vs Max | Ceiling | Floor | Avg own | Scout bonus | Captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum points | 3-5-2 | 65.4 | — | 138 | 10 | 30.1% | +1.3 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Mini-League Chase | 3-5-2 | 64.1 | −1.3 | 136 | 10 | 22.1% | +2.6 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Balanced | 3-4-3 | 65.2 | −0.2 | 138 | 10 | 30.9% | +2.1 | Kylian Mbappé |
| Scouting Bonus | 4-5-1 | 37.2 | −28.2 | 81 | 5 | 2.2% | +6.0 | Bukayo Saka |
| Wildcard (multi-week) | 3-4-3 | 65.0 | −0.4 | 138 | 10 | 31.9% | +1.6 | Kylian Mbappé |
Scouting Bonus: This squad chases scouting bonus but gives up ~28.2 expected raw points vs Maximum Points. Use only if you are chasing aggressively.
“Raw XI pts” excludes scouting bonus — the honest comparison. “vs Max” is the expectation each strategy sacrifices against pure Maximum Points. Switch strategy live on the Squad page.
Best players to own through the knockouts — GW3 points plus expected points across future rounds, weighted by their team's chance of progressing. Useful when you only have 2 transfers a week.
Data source: real ownership/form; market odds (2/2 fixtures); api-football rates (70 players) · all underlying inputs are illustrative. Run python model/scripts/build_projections.py --matchday 8 to refresh.